November 20, 2025
In 2026, identity management will move from a background IT function to the frontline central driver of commercial innovation and national security. For leaders in sectors including government, finance, and travel – and those managing critical business functions such as enterprise security, human resources, and recruitment – navigating this landscape will be essential. Here are 10 predictions on the commercially significant shifts that will define the year.
The Evolving Threat: Enterprise & Infrastructure Security
1. The Blackout Breach: National Power Grid Disrupted by a Third-Party Synthetic Identity
After the massive ripple effects of third-party supply chain breaches seen in 2025, 2026 will see this vulnerability escalate to the level of national security. A major disruption to a national power grid will be traced back to a contractor who gained employment and access to critical systems using a sophisticated synthetic identity. This event will force governments to mandate high-assurance identity verification for every individual with privileged access to critical national infrastructure.
2. The Passkey Paradox: 2026 Triggers a “Race to Secure Recovery”
Following the breakthrough adoption of passkeys in 2025, enterprises in 2026 will celebrate a massive reduction in phishing attacks. This success, however, will immediately expose a new, high-stakes vulnerability: passkey recovery. A major breach will be traced back to a threat actor exploiting a weak, legacy recovery process to take over an account. This will prove that the new “front door” is only as strong as its “back door” and trigger a massive industry shift, with high-assurance biometric verification becoming the compulsory standard for securing the passkey recovery lifecycle.
3. “Operation Sleeper Cell”: A Bank to Discover 1.2 Million Undetected Synthetic Accounts
While 2025 was defined by warnings of Gen AI-fueled synthetic identity fraud, 2026 will be the year the true scale is revealed. A major bank will accidentally uncover “Operation Sleeper Cell”, an undetected network of over a million “sleeper” and “legend” accounts. The discovery will send shockwaves through the financial sector and force regulators to admit they have grossly underestimated the real scale of this threat.
The Future of National Digital ID
4. The UK Sets the Global Benchmark for Digital ID
After a year of media scrutiny following its 2025 announcement, the UK’s digital driving licence will launch in 2026 and go beyond domestic success, providing a successful blueprint for other nations to emulate. In a repeat of the successful, critics-defying rollout of the EU Settled Status app, the press will fail to find any significant technical, operational, or inclusivity flaws, proving that large-scale government digital projects can succeed.
5. The Great Wallet Update: Over 25 Million Americans to Adopt Mobile Driver’s Licenses
Following the Transport Security Administration’s (TSA) official acceptance of mobile driver’s licenses (mDLs) in 2025, 2026 will be the tipping point for the US digital wallet. Powered by new app features and new standards, new travel use cases will convince over 25 million Americans to upload a digital driver’s license to their mobile wallet, marking a fundamental shift in how Americans prove their identity.
The New Consumer Experience: Travel, Work, & Media
6. The £5 Flight: “Unmanned Airport” to Launch with Zero Passenger-Facing Staff
Taking the biometric Entry/Exit System (EES), which began its rollout in 2025 to its ultimate conclusion, a European regional airport will open in 2026 with no passenger-facing staff. Enabled entirely by mandatory biometric pre-enrollment and e-gates, the “unmanned airport” will slash costs, making possible ultra-cheap, carry-on-only flights with 30-minute aircraft turnaround times.
7. The Death of the Resume Lie: Verifiable Career Credentials Become the New Standard for Hiring
Following the 2025 crackdowns on “laptop farms” that exposed the massive scale of synthetic identity scams, such as the North Korean IT workers who infiltrated Fortune 500 companies, the risk of hiring from an unverified resume will become untenable in 2026. In response, enterprises will adopt NIST SP 800-63-4 guidelines on Injection Attack Detection, which mandate that systems must distinguish between a live webcam feed and a “virtual camera” software stream.
8. Streaming Services Use Biometrics to Stop Credential Sharing
After Netflix’s password-sharing crackdown proved to be a massive financial success in 2025, a major streaming service will take the next logical step in 2026. It will introduce cloud biometric verification to eliminate credential sharing permanently. The move will not only recapture billions in lost revenue but also enable a better consumer experience by making possible secure graduated “Friends & Family” packages.
The AI Revolution: Society & The Human Element
9. The ‘Rogue Agent’ Crisis: Verifying the Human Behind the AI
As the “personal AI agents” that moved from theory to product in 2025 become commonplace in 2026, the threat will no longer be simply spotting a deepfake. The new arms race will be in distinguishing a legitimate, authorized agent from a malicious one. This will force a radical evolution of liveness detection, shifting from “Is this a real human?” to “Is this agent under the control of the right, genuine human right now?”
10. “Bot Addiction” to be Recognized as a Formal Medical Condition
Following the 2025 explosion of “AI companion” apps and the resulting mental health concerns that led to platforms like Character.AI banning teens, 2026 will see the psychological fallout become official. In 2026, as addiction to AI romantic partners and digital “dead relatives” becomes a mainstream public health issue, the World Health Organization (WHO) will formally recognize ‘synthetic agent addiction’ by adding it to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD).
